Today, the Finance minister is expected to tell the nation how much the government plans to borrow to finance the 2016/17 Budget.
But as the government spells out its revenue sources, concern is rife that Tanzania is heading towards a debt trap.
Minister for Finance Phillip Mpango last week requested Parliament to approve Sh8 trillion to service public loan for the 2016/17 financial year. This is an indication that the government aims at borrowing the same amount from both domestic and foreign sources.
If all goes according to government plan, then it would have borrowed slightly less than it did in the 2015/16, when it borrowed a total of Sh8,498 billion (Sh8.5 trillion).
The decrease of Sh500 billion on borrowing despite a planned budget increase of Sh7 trillion is significant.
However, the Sh8 trillion borrowing is still huge and could contribute to the bourgeoning public debt.
Worse still, public debt in Tanzania has been the target of corrupt elements within and outside the government. In several instances, both securing and repaying of the loans have been abused with billions of money diverted to private accounts.
The stealing of $133 million (Sh279 billion) from the External Payment Arrears Account of the Bank of Tanzania in the 2005/06 financial year is a case in point. The money was for repayment of an import bill.
The latest scandal involved the borrowing of $600 million from financial markets in the financial year 2012/13. A firm known as Enterprise Growth Market Advisors Ltd, pocketed about $6 million (Sh12.6 billion) from deal. A court case is ongoing concerning the scandal.
Stakeholders’ concerns are also that the increase in national debt is not complemented by equal increases in economic activity. A worrying trend is that from 2008, the growth in external debt outpaced that of the GDP meaning that the country’s ability to service its future external obligations is being compromised, an analysis by the African Forum and Network on Debt and Development (Afrodad) shows.
The problem is also that the government is relying more and more on commercial borrowing, which jumped suddenly in 2008 to $1 billion (Sh2.2 trillion) from about $400 million the previous year. It reached $2 billion in 2011 and $5.2 billion in February 2016.
The gap between multilateral and commercial borrowing has, thus, been narrowing from $3 billion in 2011 to $2 billion in 2016, according to data from the Bank of Tanzania. The national debt stock stood at $17.04 billion (Sh35.78 trillion) in February 2016 according to Bank of Tanzania.
The government claims that the national debt is sustainable and that it borrows more from commercial sources to finance infrastructure projects. It further claims that financing these projects will bring out the multiplier effects to agriculture, manufacturing, transport and communication sectors of economy which, in turn, leads to economic growth. But experts say the country’s economy is being subjected to external shocks.
Sovereign euro bond
The ministry of Finance projects that borrowing from concessionary sources will decline to 15 per cent of total borrowing by 2035 while commercial borrowing would increase to 51 per cent. The government still nurtures the hope of a crediting rating to be able to float a sovereign bond. The credit rating has been repeatedly delayed, since 2013, for what experts say is due to some fundamental flaws in the Tanzania’s economic structure.
Credit agency have been repeatedly uncomfortable with the country’s capacity to repay the loan. Last year, BoT governor Benno Ndulu expressed hope that the government could receive the rating as early as July 2015 in time with the commencement of the new financial year. However, when tabling her budget speech in June 11, 2015 Finance minister Saada Mkuya said the country expected to get the rating in November 2015. The rating is yet to come and it is expected Dr Mpango would say something about it today.
The ratings could take the country from the junk status it currently is and might have positive impact on the investment climate and on the growth of the private sector. The government has been planning to borrow as much as $2 billion through a Eurobond placing.
However, it remains to be seen how the controversial 2013 private placement mediated by Standard Bank would impact on Tanzania’s Euro bond efforts.